cherokee_greg

Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and
now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather.. The strong jet
has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the
persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block
has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large
and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and
northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet
stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic
lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and
supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a
low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at
least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds
will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at
least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from
(and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000
feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually
cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of
snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of
feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather
threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going
to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as
powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the
following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of
3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of
NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in
orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower
elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually
unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional
persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a
truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong
Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm
rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as
scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in
such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high
potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will
be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations
between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very
serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the
tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days
will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite
of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very
steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers
expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not
clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the
potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high
Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt
jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some
point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw
closer.
In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across
California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists
for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval,
especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week
2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could
fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable
event. Stay tuned.

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Greg zone 9 Fresno,CA
http://gardenjot.com/garden/view/1980/Gregs-Banana-Farm

momoese

That doesn't sound good at all ^

Jack Daw

Well it will be a show one way or another. Though I doubt those predictions will be very accurate, as long as extreme temperatures and fronts are forecasted, they usually behave quite differently in reality. We'll see though, it's some time from now.

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Zeitgeist - Corporatocracy 101 (~2hrs)

Zeitgeist - Moving Forward (~2.5hrs)

Richard

The Santa Ana River which originates in the San Bernardino mountains, is likely to have another 50-year flood event. This usually means boulders the size of houses traveling out of Mill Creek and down through San Bernardino. Prado Dam is likely to crest and if it does not hold (historically, it has not) then Newport Harbor will be devastated along with about 5,000 homes built at flood stage below the dam. For those who know the Redlands CA area, San Timoteo Creek becomes a daemon during the 50-year event, sending a 25-foot high wall of mud down through the lower canyon and destroying Barton Road along the Riverside county boarder.

Have boots, will slog.

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lorax

Greg, take comfort in the fact that the same weather system that's bringing you record rainfall has sucked all of the moisture out of the equatorial regions. We're in the teeth of our worst drought in nearly 120 years.

Richard

It's not nice to fool with mother nature ...

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sbl

The long term preditions based on El Nino were pretty accurate here--wetter and colder than normal--turned into 2 ft more rain than normal and the longest cold spell I have seen in my lifetime. I just hope that the article I read about this being a different kind of El Nino that means more hurricanes is wrong. Another yr like 2005 could make insurance unaffordable here.

We are back to normal here for a while with highs in 60s and lows in 40s, but it is still pretty wet.

cherokee_greg

Check out the rainbow we had yesterday

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Greg zone 9 Fresno,CA
http://gardenjot.com/garden/view/1980/Gregs-Banana-Farm

harveyc

Currently having heavy rain and winds of 26mph with gusts of 34mph. Lights just flickered but we've been lucky and avoided an electrical outage thus far.

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sunfish

bencelest

In Salinas CA we have this:
lots of rain pouring now......

Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST today...
Today
Windy. Rain and isolated thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.

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Banana Nut

Richard

The barometer here has dropped to 970 millibars (about 28 inHg), but at the center of the depression off the California-Oregon boarder it is about 948 mb -- akin to a strong hurricane.

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Jack Daw

How many Pascals is that?

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Thnx to Marcel, Ante, Dr. Chiranjit Parmar and Francesco for the plants I've received.



Zeitgeist - Corporatocracy 101 (~2hrs)

Zeitgeist - Moving Forward (~2.5hrs)

Richard

If you type into the Google search bar:

convert 947 millibars to pascals

it will reply

947 millibars = 94 700 pascals

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bencelest

There were 3 times tornado warning over the TV interrupting all the shows to announce these. within 2 hours I was waching.

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Richard

O.K. all you folks in the U.S. east of the Rockies, you know what happens when a large storm front moves through western coast: YOU'RE NEXT !!

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cherokee_greg

I know we had some warnings here too. Are power went out for awile. The rain is not over storm 5 today get ready

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Greg zone 9 Fresno,CA
http://gardenjot.com/garden/view/1980/Gregs-Banana-Farm

cherokee_greg

San Francisco – A storm system that has battered California for three days, flooding streets and triggering mudslides, is now aiming at Arizona.

This bout of bad weather, say meteorologists, is largely courtesy of El Niño, which is expected to influence the jet stream throughout the winter months.

In southern California on Wednesday, the third storm in three days brought high winds and continuous rainfall, prompting authorities to issue flash-flood and high-wind warnings. In the north, some 30,000 people lost power, and the state’s highway patrol reported numerous mudslides along roadways.

On Thursday and Friday, Arizona is expecting as much as four feet of snow in the northern part of the state and heavy rainfall in the center. And Nevadans should prepare for flooding later this week, officials in Las Vegas said. That city was pummeled with heavy rains Tuesday.

“It’s going to be a big one,” says Darren McCollum, lead forecaster in Flagstaff, Ariz., for the National Weather Service.

While it’s difficult to pinpoint what’s responsible for a batch of severe storms, many are pointing their finger at El Niño.

“El Niño appears to be showing signs here in this pattern with particularly strong disturbances within the jet stream,” says Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. “The intensity of the mid-level and upper-level winds has been quite dramatic.”

The high winds, which reached 60 miles per hour and toppled power lines in Sacramento and Silicon Valley in California on Wednesday, are expected to taper off as storm systems move east and into Arizona.

While El Niño has already produced big storms across the West, it may also be blamed for producing an unimpressive amount of snowfall for the upcoming winter Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia.

As The Seattle Times notes, El Niño years can bring both stormy weather as well as warmer temperatures.

In San Francisco, El Niño has been held responsible for the relocation of the city’s sea lions from their Pier 39 home to colder waters along the Oregon coast.

"My gut feeling is it has something to do with the [ocean-warming] El Nino conditions off California, which is driving prey and sea lions up north," Kim Raum-Suryan, a biologist at the Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport, Ore., told USA Today.

But while most meteorologists say that El Niño is at the root of this week’s rotten weather, some disagree.

On his Sciencedude blog for The Orange Country Register, science writer Gary Robbins interviewed William Patzert, a climatologist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.

“While the rest of the country has been battered by strong, cold outbreaks; bringing storms, snow and frigid temperatures over the past two weeks, California remained mild and dry. Now it’s our turn,” wrote Mr. Patzert in an e-mail to the science dude.

But don’t blame it on El Niño, he says.

“The El Nino warmed subtropics might be pumping a little moisture into these storms as they move south and could be giving rain and snowfall totals a boost. But not much!” he wrote.

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Greg zone 9 Fresno,CA
http://gardenjot.com/garden/view/1980/Gregs-Banana-Farm

djmb74

Everytime I hear about or read about El Nino it reminds me of Chris Farley, then I get sad about how his life ended. He was one of my favorites!

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*PEOPLE WILL FORGET WHAT YOU DID.
*BUT PEOPLE WILL NEVER FORGET HOW YOU MADE THEM FEEL!

cherokee_greg

how funny

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Greg zone 9 Fresno,CA
http://gardenjot.com/garden/view/1980/Gregs-Banana-Farm