Re: current weather
I'm not in that city, thankfully (I'm in Quito, Puyo, and Manabi, usually). If Lago Yaguarcocha goes, though, the city of Ibarra is toast, and probably also the towns of El Chota and Los Valles. Thankfully Otavalo is one valley over so it wont be lost. However, there's almost no chance of it breaching a weak wall - it's an indented blast crater that created its own valley (one of the larger explosive dasitic explosions of Volcan Imbabura created it several million years ago.) It would be a really amazing feat to break a crater wall, as they're all uniformly several thousand feet thick of hard basalt.
I'd be more concerned if there was a warning out for Lago Cuicocha or Lago Quilotoa, which are elevated crater lakes.
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