damaclese

i hope my post was clear as i did not try to out line the hole concept in one post i well elaborate further if you all want me to but I'm of the opinion that most people find my postings hard to fallow because i try to out line to vast an amount of information at one time and with my Dyslexia it vary hard to read and understand the points I'm trying to make so i thought i would lay it out in more then one post

in synopsis my point is that the climate can change rapidly with out warning we do not know why theirs no point in arguing this fact we just don't understand the climate well enough to know

secondly it changes with out warning and radically

thirdly i assert that the ice age so often referred to as the last ICE AGE is not infect over we are just in a glassily low ebb in its cycle and the rapid warming that so many clam to see may or may not be related to any of this in fact over all here and in many parts of the world the climate is getting colder not warmer but the people that are looking for warming are just not looking at the cooling parts just the warming parts its myopic and narrow minded

theres no way for me to prove my assertions as we only have theory's as to why the last cold period happened i can print them out for you all if you want to hear them for your self

and as for my opinion that north America will be uninhabitable in almost no time at all is that there simply will not be enough water on this Continent to support 450,000,000 people if that comes to pass then look out we are looking at the largest human extinction scenario in the history of are species

I don't think any efforts to curb green house gases will make any difference one way or the other on this out come

its sad to think of the loss of culture that is going to occur but we haven't exactly taken care of the planet any way so what clam do we really have on it you just get to rent for a wile

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Richard

I think there is a difference between irresponsible polluting and responsible custodianship of the earth.

As for whether or not there is any merit to the claims that global climate change is occurring or not occurring, I look at it this way:

• A meteorologist is someone who studies weather conditions. They typically have a bachelors degree in Earth Sciences, or perhaps they attended a University that offers a Meteorology degree.
• A climatologist is someone who studies the climate of a solar body. Yes, most of them study the earth climate. With a masters degree you can get one of the few jobs in industry as a consulting engineer, but for a career you won't get far without a PhD. Included in the PhD will be at least a masters degree in Earth Sciences and Physics which includes at least a masters degree in Applied Mathematics.
• A Geo-climatologist is someone who studies climates back through the geologic history of the earth. One area of study is global warming -- the theory that the earth has been warming on average 1 degree (C) every hundred years. Another area of study is the theory of current global climate change.

For lay-people (including myself) to issue opinions on whether or not climate change exists is ludicrous.

Further, to judge a theory by vote (how many scientists for and against) is even more ridiculous. Consider this:
In the years that Einstein's Theory of Relativity papers were published, the vast majority of physicists thought there was little merit to the ideas.

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paradisi

ROFLMAO

I havent been on the forum for a while and the first thing I see are the flat earthers proclaiming climate changes is a hoax LOL

We now have a religous right political group as the opposition in australia and they have decreed that climate change deosnt exist - the oppisiontis headed by a bloke called abbott - a failed catholic priest and a woman called bishop

I havent read the thread and may be jumping in feet first, but I would have thought the flat earthers had very little place in a discussion forum where everyone is a plant grower and gardenr and as such are the people most likely to notice changes in the climate

Just my thoughts. i will get around to reading the full thread, I need something to make me smile

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jeffreyp

I would suggest reading the whole thread rather than kick up the sand like an equus asinus. . I don't think most would dispute the climate changes.

djmb74

valid points Richard, but the argument isn't really weather climate change is happening! Its always happening! The argument is weather or not we are the cause of climate change and if we really can do anything about it! The other problem is wealthier nations bullying the poorer nations into treaties that effect the growth of their nation.

And yes a lot of this also has to do with money. Policy changes one way or another can effect large corporations profit! Scientist may not be making large amounts of money on this climate issue but someone is either that or they are trying to keep from having to pay out money and those people are the ones that may be in positions to encourage them down one path or another!

Conspiracies and powerful people manipulating large portions of society is happening, its happening everyday!

As a "lay person" I am not going to just believe something someone tells me just because they have an education.

Heck how many times in the last 20 years have we been told that something was bad for us then the next year they do another study that says they were wrong and it actually is good for us or vice versa!

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Richard

I'm certainly not asking you to. And likewise, no one without a credible background in the subject (about 3 PhD's worth) should be voicing opinions on whether or not we are currently in a phase of global human-induced climate change.

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djmb74

Not even close to be the same subject as what is being discussed here. But I had a really bad experience with so called "educated" when it came to the birth of my 2 oldest. Especially my 2nd oldest. Had 2 doctors give different decisions on whether or not to do a C section first one said it had to be done no way because he was gonna be over 10lbs, his shift ended 2nd doctor said he has no idea why the previous doctor said she needed a c-section. After that experience I thought boy I could do a better job then they did. My 3rd child I spent 8 months studying I delivered Larissa, then Zachary, and Jayden myself.

In my 40 years I have met a lot of people with way too much eduction to be walking around without a lick of sense!

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Richard

djmb74, your vocation would not exist without the multitude of highly educated physicists and electrical engineers that made it possible in the last century.

Divide and conquer by invoking bias and mistrust of academics and science/engineering professionals has been a major theme of the RNC for the last two decades. It is a page right out of Mao's playbook.

You have been playing a nut-and-shell game in this thread. Exactly what is your point?

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djmb74

(scratches my head)... hmm maybe at this point I don't have one!

I think I am just starting to like reading what you type Richard!

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djmb74

I don't mistrust academics or science...

Its the politicians I mistrust, EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM!

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damaclese

now back to the point heres another example of non man made events that caused rapid and extreme climate change

Laki - 1783 Eruption

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From: Williams, Jr., and Moore, Man Against Volcano: The Eruption on Heimaey, Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland: USGS General Interest Publication, 32p.
The Vestmannaeyjar islands parallel the structural trend of tectonic fissures (gjár), grabens, and crater rows on the mainland to the north in the eastern volcanic zone. This is a zone of historically active volcanoes, including Hekla, Katla, and the famous Laki fissure eruption of 1783. The Laki eruption derives its name from a mountain (Laki) which was split by a fissure from which a large volume of lava and gas emanated. ... The Laki eruption produced the largest lava flow on Earth observed in historic times, 2.9 cubic miles of lava which inundated 218 square miles. ...

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From: Richard S. Williams, Jr., Glaciers: Clues to Future Climate: USGS General Interest Publication, 1999 Online version
Among the more prominent theories of events that have triggered global climatic changes and lead to repeated glaciation are: (1) known astronomical variations in the orbital elements of the Earth (the so-called Milankovitch theory); (2) changes in energy output from the Sun; and (3) increases in volcanism that could have thrown more airborne volcanic material into the stratosphere, thereby creating a dust veil and lowered temperatures. ...


The potential climatic effect of the Laki volcanic eruption in Iceland in 1783, the largest effusive (lava) volcanic eruption in historic time, was noted by the diplomat-scientist Benjamin Franklin in 1784, during one of his many sojourns in Paris. Franklin concluded that the introduction of large quantities of volcanic particles into the Earth's upper atmosphere could cause a reduction in surface temperature, because the particles would lessen the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth's surface.

After this 1783 eruption of Laki in Iceland there were three Years of complete and utter devastation across the norther hemisphere. The sumer of 1784 85 and 86 there was reports of ice in the Mississippi delta down in to new Orleans. That same years there was continuous snows across northern England in the months of July and August. All across France Crops failed for 3 years strate. It has been suggested that this was a leading cause of the French revaluation. We know know from studies of volcanic lava in Laki that there was sulfur dioxide expelled in high concentration in the 1783 eruption. Many reports that same year of hazy red colored Sky's. The sulfur combines with Water vapor in the atmosphere to form an aerosol that block solar radiation. There are many other examples of this kind of dramatic climate Chang. the rice fields of Japan falid cousing the bigest famin ever in Japans recorded history cupled with all the other afects its ben shown that over 600,000 people died as a result of the 1783 eruption of laki why they hell dont the teach that in high school (retorical) you would think 6 hundred thousand people dieing would be big news?

You see here ones agian are exsamples of non Human related climat chang

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damaclese

OK now that i have finally laid out the previous examples this is what i think its causing the cooling affects. The Golf stream is slowing down. Why? because in the last 20 years the glaciers of Iceland have been melting at unprecedented rates. Now before you start jumping up and down saying "see see i told you global warming" Let get the facts striate as to why the glaciers are melting. Its not do to global warming! its do to dramatically increased volcanic activity on Iceland which by the way is the biggest sheet of ice in the norther hemisphere.
And its melting from the bottom up ^ not the other way around. All over Iceland you can see depression were the volcanoes that sit under the ice are melting the over head ice. This makes for large lakes that sit inside of the calderas of many of thees volcanoes. At some point the walls of the caldera fail letting the water rush out. There are numerous examples of thees mass flooding events, including photographs and moves this of course flows in to the Atlantic sea and this is why the salinity of the sea which has been dropping rapidly over that last 2 decades causing the golf stream to slow down. there by not moving heat from the equatorial regions to the north hemisphere. So the atmosphere is not heating up but if you were to look at the temperatures at the equator you would think the earth is over heating. The global warming people use this as an example of green house gas affect when its absolutely and provably not from solar radiation but do to ice melts from volcanic activity in Iceland. So you see we are headed for at least a short maybe 1500 year cold spell as to why north America looks like its heating is because the heat the builds up in the golf of Mex that is normally moved away by the Golf stream is now free to radiate out threw natural convective currents. This is making the regions of the souther US warmer. This is turn is creating higher faster moving winds to the east sucking the heat and moisture out of the desert south west. And increasing the snows on the east coast wish is the pattern we have been seeing now for over 20 years. this is what promoted climatologist to perceive that the Climate was in flux's. In turn is leaving heat that would normally be cared north down in the Caribbean which is accelerating the evaporation of the oceans and is causing and exscalation in the hurricane cycle making storms more frequent and increasing their intensity. All of this is sucking the moisture out of Europe and drawing hotter air up off the Mediterranean making Europe have some of the hottest and longest summers on record. So you see its not green house its Golf Stream related Global warming. But it will lead to Cooling on the back side its just the beginning of the cycle. In the Younger Dryer Period its Been estimated that it only took 30 years to go from 80 deg summers on the east cost of North America to 40 deg summers. That would make the winters here in the US similar to Alaska you are looking at wind chills in the -100 or grater and temps in the -20 to -30 below zero fh. The water in the atmosphere will freeze out and start to accumulate in northern latitudes were it will remain locked up even in the summer times. Leaving North America as dry as the Sahara or in my case the Mohave desert. Were will you all get your drinking water? and Kansas Nebraska and Iowa which feed 50% of the world will not be even able to feed us let alone the starving peoples of Africa. What will they do? What about Russia which buys halfe of all are wheet now they will starve and so will Europe and India. Possibly as many as 4 billion people in the World will Die.

PS i am not a flat earther as was pointed out in another post any one that knows me at all on this forum would know that i am one of the stonchest perponets of stewerd ship of are Good Green Earth and my postings on this subject in no way saport or advacat the abusiv life stiles that have been the hall mark of Western culture throuw out the 19th and 20th centurys

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jeffreyp

so the answer would seem to pump more co2 into the atmosphere.

damaclese

in answer to your question. heres a link on the Younger dryas period that has some references to an event 50,000 years ago when the earths CO2 was many many times higher. not that this really answers in any definitive way but it hints at how we cant know if the current CO2 levels would have any affect. or maybe they would curb the cooling all together. we simple cant know we will have to just monitor and learn as we go

Two examples of abrupt climate change

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sbl

Paulo, I agree with you that the Gulf Stream is slowing--it is part of the ocean circulation belt that starts with deepwater formation in the Notrh Atlantic--the Gulf Stream is the last leg of the return trip as the water come to the surface in the Pacific. There are oceanographers that are measuring the amount of deepwater formed and they are seeing a decrease in formation. The slowing of the circulation is also evident in the increased frequency of El Nino.

I do believe that when or if the circulation stops, there will be dramatic changes in climate as the ocean has a major influence on our weather and climate. It will be much like the Younger Dryas period.

But, I do think that man's influence on the climate is speeding our warming and leading to that dramatic change (not that other natural factors are not involved as forces increasing or decreasing our temperature). In addition, as we are increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, the pH of seawater is decreasing making it more difficult for mollusk to make shells and coral to make reefs.

jeffreyp

co2 causes both global warming and cooling then?

sbl

As a greenhouse gas, CO2 increases the retention of solar heat causing warming of the earth. The warming reduces the formation of deepwater in the ocean --that is what drives the ocean circulation.

One major question that science has never had a good answer for is what happens to cause the drop in CO2 that has happened at the end of each of the past warm periods.

My theory--I have not seen this in any science articles-- is that the CO2 drops because the ocean circulation breaks down into a two layer system--the bottom layer becomes isolated--so any algae produced in the surface layer sinks to the deep layer and is isolated from the surface until the system is restarted--that is then what leads to the rapid increase in CO2 at the start of the warm period.

jeffreyp

so if things cooled because of natural processes would it be prudent to emit more co2?

damaclese

it can start a warming trend but we don't know if its the cause of global warming but as the atmosphere warms and glaciers melt the seas salinity grows weaker then the golf stream slows and if it stops completely the entire northern hemisphere would be thrown in to at least a short Glacial piroud the golf stream is what circulates heat from the equator up in to the northern latitudes
but is my opinion along with a grate many scientist that the fresh water that is interring the northern Atlantic is defiantly from Iceland's massive ice sheet why this is melting is the bone of contention i say its from increased volcanic activity by the way there is some evidence that volcanoes as well as tectonic activity is tied to the solar cycle and guess what its just happens to be on a dozey of a hot cycle right now we are getting particle out flows like we have never seen sins the sun was first monitored in the early 20th century

I would like to point out that the total Co2 in are atmosphere has not raisin magnificently in the last 10 years as a mater of fact its drooping for example the average Auto in 2009 puts out 95% less emissions then it did in 1960 the first year for recording of such facts and yes that even accounts for chinas hole sale abuse of the climate but that could Chang as they are building infrastructure as an amazing pace and are set to over take the US in road construction in less then 5 years and seeing as there country is many times the size of ares I'm sure if they don't get it together and soon on coming ICE AGE or not nun of us are going to be breathing by the time it gets here
now I'm not talking other kinds of emissions like Carbinmonoxside or nitrogen sulfur or any other just Co2
i wish we could convince the Chinese and Indians that they could grow even in the face of emissions controls we did it we have had some sort of legislation for almost 50 years and most of are super growth has occurred in that time we were hardly a super power in 1960 we barely had and army at that point in comparison to previous decades of WWII OK I'm veering of topic sorry for that but it is all inter related

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sbl

If the scenario I just described is what happens, then extra CO2 will shorten the time until the circulation system shuts down, once it shuts down CO2 emissions may not have much effect as the ocean starts drawing it down--probably faster that we have been increasing it. However, whatever levels of CO2 do remain, it will still behave like a greenhouse gas and retain more heat than if it were not there.

The normal CO2 cycle (before man's influence) varied from a low of about 180ppm during the Ice Age to a high of 280 to 300 ppm during the warm periods. We are now near 400 ppm.

However, CO2 is not the only factor involved in the the earth's climate, a combination of orbital factors, reflectance and ocean circulation are also involved--I doubt CO2 levels can stop an Ice Age when it is due if that is what you are asking.