Gabe,
Thanks for your input.
The economics of what you seem to see as the future may not pan out, though. We, as Americans, have a real problem with change in our diets. For example, it is well known that a diet high in fats is potentially deadly and at least unhealthy, but we seem to continue to have one of he highest mortality rates in the coronary related diseases.
This is due to the fact that these types of foods are 1) convenient, 2) relatively inexpensive, and 3) darn good tasting, too.
Given that, a change thrust upon the good old Americans with a 'new' banana that does not look or taste like the one in the grocery store today will not have the popularity of today's Cavendish. While there may be some substitutes, there will also be a time where they are not as popular as today's banana and they will sit on the shelves and rot before they are purchased for consumption. This is why the efforts to find that magic Cavendish that resists Panama disease is so important. All of the laws enacted in the world to ban monoculture will not change this behavior.
I believe that until such time as other varieties are well and eagerly recieved by the American public, research in finding the magic Cavendish must be continued and even accelerated. The fact that there are other possibilities that can be used as substitutes is looking at it only from the supply side. The demand for these substitutes will lag, resulting in farmer's leaving the business (if you can't sell them, why grow them?). The companies can aid in their own self interest by doing some advance marketing (tasting tables at supermarkets, advertising the benefits of other banana types, etc.) but a transition will be difficult.
I think this area of study is important. I can give you a good example. Remember the New Coke and how well it was recieved? This new entry into the market was more or less pushed onto the consumer without any pre-marketing at all and was firmly rejected by the public. Classic Coke was stripped from the shelves as many thought that Coca Cola was not going to make any more (not true but less shelf space was given to it and rumors, as always, abounded). The company quickly retracted the New Coke and things went back to normal.
In the banana world, if the disease spreads, there is no going back to the 'Classic Cavendish', at least not now.
This post is already too long. I'm certain the continuation will follow.
For what it's worth, my real background is in economics.....and if you line up all of the economists in the world, you will never reach a conclusion.
