djmb74

Someone help me understand here...

Does global warming cause it to get colder cause we in the midst of the longest cold snap in 9 years. If you watch the weather channel almost 2/3 of the US is hitting Near-record low right now!

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sbl

The biggest factors affecting weather are the shortest term factors--day/night, winter/summer, but there are also intermediate term factors like El Nino/Southern Oscillation and sun spot activity. Then there are the long term factors such as changes in our orbit, the wobble of our axis and the effects of greenhouse gasses (both the man-mad and natural fluctuations).

This is clearly "weather", but on that point--I think I read somewhere that most experts consider "climate" at least a 3 yr period.

This colder and wetter winter was predicted as a typical condition associated with El Nino, and normally I would gladly accept the cold wet winter effects of El Nino for the benificial effects it usually has on hurricanes, but one disturbing thing I just read about El Nino is that they have found that there are 2 types, this one is the bad type, like the one that we had in 2004 when we had 4 hurricanes hit Florida. The bad type has a warm spot in the middle of the Pacific instead of next to the coast of Peru.

sbl

Both biological and chemical absorption are taking place, but the biological absorption in the ocean is generally considered to be a net zero since most of the CO2 taken up by phytoplankton is converted back to CO2 before it sinks to the bottom (by respiration of consumers). Uptake by organisms like coral and mollusk to make shells is a potential sink that could result in long term storage, but decreasing pH is having negative effects on that process. BTW, carbonate rock from corals, mollusk, and carbonate phytoplankton is by far the largest reservior of carbon in the world.

As for the models, there are many different models and I do not know what they consider, but there are many different processes happening on many different time scales, so most models only include the biggest factors for the time scales they are considering. In the short term, the biggest factor is just the dissolving of CO2 in the surface water of the ocean.

djmb74

Well this is the 2nd year in a row of having a nasty cold snap here in central Florida. Last winter it wasn't so many days in a row... So if we have the same issue next year we have a cold climate issue? lol

I sure hope we do not have a bad hurricane season this year, I have a lot of plans to grow all kinds of stuff.

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sbl

Yeah, I agree, it's the second yr here too--I'm ready for a frost free winter (normally a 1 in 20 probability)! It is a lot of work covering all my citrus, bananas, pineapples and avocados. This is just the first blast--they are predicting teens for the end of the week!

I really, really hope this prediction of a new type of El Nino is wrong! We do not need another 2004!

Patty in Wisc

SBL, I remember thinking you were wrong about el nino when you said it would be a colder winter when I read that it would be a warmer one. We are both right...I read this in Oct. Very interesting & so far it's true! I'm sure you saw this before? For all I know, maybe I got it from you LOL. I also posted this on citrus forum in Oct.
NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA: El Niño to Help Steer U.S. Winter Weather

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jeffreyp

Whatever goes on with the climate it's still "the weather". This year there was reduced to no sun spot activity, after something like 10 years of very active sunspot phase of the sun. Because of this they were saying it was going to be a cold winter and I guess they were right.


More evidence CO2 not culprit | The Australian


Hot Weather Convinces Media of Climate Change; Cold Weather Ignored
From 2003 heat wave that killed thousands, to melting Peruvian glaciers the news media find examples of global warming.

By Julia A. Seymour
Business & Media Institute
1/4/2010 3:34:22 PM

The news media constantly misuse extreme weather examples to generate fear of global warming, but when record cold or record snow sets in journalists don’t mention the possibility of global cooling trends. While climatologists would say weather isn’t necessarily an indication of climate, it has been in the media, but only when the weather could be spun as part of global warming.
In Iowa, temperatures are 30 degrees below normal according to the Des Moines Register. That’s a near-record low. Beijing is facing the coldest temperatures in decades according to Australia’s The Age.
And in Pichccahuasi, Peru, bitter cold may cause the extinction of communities of alpaca farmers suffering from pneumonia and other respiratory problems. Ironically, that Guardian (U.K.) report called the region an anomaly “in a world growing ever hotter.”
Despite such extreme cold around the world, the three networks are not forecasting a period of global cooling. In fact, in the past three months there has been only one mention of “global cooling” on the networks. That was in an NBC “Today” about geo-engineering (manipulating) the global climate to create global cooling to combat global warming.
But when record heat was in the news global warming got the blame. NBC highlighted melting glaciers in Peru on Dec. 8 and declared that “climate change is to blame.” That story cited United Nations claims that the decade might be the warmest since 1850 – also the same year the Little Ice Age ended.
When a heat wave hit the U.S. in July 2006, CBS “Evening News” consulted Pew Center on Global Climate Change’s Jay Gulledge.
“The average global temperature is getting hotter due to global warming,” Gulledge told CBS.
In a Cosmo magazine style quiz, Newsweek called the deadly European heat wave of 2003 “a human fingerprint” of “man-made climate change.”
And in 2008 Stanford University professor Dr. Stephen Schneider told ABC’s “Good Morning America” that methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are making hot temperatures even hotter.
“While this heat wave like all other heat waves is made by Mother Nature, we've been fooling around by turning the knob and making a little bit hotter,” Schneider said on June 9, 2008. “[W]e’ve already increased by 35 percent the amount of carbon dioxide which traps heat. We've added 150 percent more methane, which also traps heat.”
Dr. Roy Spencer, the principal research scientist for the University of Alabama at Huntsville, disagreed with Schneider. Spender told the Business & Media Institute that making a connection between the East Coast heat wave and emissions was “too much.”
John Christy, a climatologist at the same university as Spencer, testified to the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works on May 2, 2001. He urged the committee “to be suspicious of media reports in which weather extremes are given as proof of human-induced climate change.”
He added that “weather extremes occur somewhere all the time,” including “the coldest combined November and December in 106 years” at the end of 2000, an event that “does not prove U.S. or global cooling"

Recent global cool-down challenges validity of climate change models






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Patty in Wisc

Yes they were. And I hope they were right about saying it will be warmer up here in the north.
Warmer up here & colder & wetter in SE. sorry
But, we will see come Feb.

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jeffreyp

Climate-change movement pays homage to false god of global warming

“This unquestioned adherence to the theory of Global Warming bears all the markings of what traditionally would be recognized as a religion. Complete with sin (the emitting of carbon dioxide), scriptures (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports), commandments (drive a Prius, use Compact Florescent Light bulbs, do not eat meat etc.), indulgences (carbon offsets), proselytism, prophets (Al Gore), priests (scientists), prophecy and apocalypse (floods, hurricanes, dead polar bears), infidels (Warming skeptics), and salvation (the halting of carbon emitting industrial progress) . . . .”

(I thought the indulgences part was hilarious!) I mentioned it before in this thread that the whole movement reminds me of a religion in the most pejorative sense nevertheless it's a great well written article.

sbl

The coldest day ever on record here was 1985-- and 1990 was the second coldest day ever--the beginning of the warmest decade on record.

The difference in science and religon is that science forbids what religon requires--Faith in the absence of any evidence. Kinda like the anti-climate change theorist.

As I said before, ocean circulation is probably the biggest single factor on earth determining our "climate". El Nino is an example of just how much a slowing of the ocean circulation will affect our climate. The frequency of El Nino is increasing. I still think that warming will lead to slowing of the circulation and that will lead to cooling.

damaclese

Damaclese AKA Paul<-------(Warming skeptic) infidel LOL

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jeffreyp

I think most would agree the climate does change, those who do not would truly be ignorant.

sbl

Skepticism is basic to science--we do not "believe" anything. We generate theories or hypotheses and seek to dis-prove them. If we can't disprove them we accept them as the best explanation for the observations and data we can think of until a better explanation or until we get different data. Right now, most knowledgable scientist accept man-made global warming as the best explanation for all of the data. That does not mean that there are not others that accept a different theory--or that they are wrong.

The point that I have often made is that if we do nothing and the theory is correct, we will face some severe consequences. If we are able to change enough to make a difference (something I doubt), perhaps we can avert a crisis--in the mean time we create jobs, get big oil off our backs and improve the environment.

jeffreyp

I agree with that.

djmb74

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jeffreyp

Martin you infidel...

djmb74

HAHAHA

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Nicolas Naranja

We ought to be conserving energy and finding the most energy efficient means of doing things as a matter of business. I don't think that scaring people about climate change is the necessary means to an end. First of all, not all change is bad. I for one would like to have fewer frosts and freezes in Florida. Climate is very local as well. Here in Florida we have several weather stations that have been recording since the 10s and 20's and some have been stable over that time period, some have increased, and some have decreased. The other state I personally know something about is Iowa and they have the same kind of thing happening some up, some down and some stable. They have gotten consistently more rain over the past 100 years. Long term we know that there are 30 year cycles for certain things and 18 year cycles for others. When gas gets to $5 conservation won't be an option.

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sbl

I agree with that--but I don't think it will stop at $5--we will probably see that this summer.

Here, our rainfall has been anything but stable--from just over 30 inches a few yrs ago (Pine trees were dying) to 88 inches last yr. Rainfall, or lack of it, is probably more important than temperatures--just ask Lorax.

I do not think the climate change warnings are an attempt to scare people, but a heads up for the changes that are likely comming. Many areas dependent on glacial water are going to run out--that has serious consequences.

Here in FL, I am much more concerned with the potential for increased hurricane strength.

jeffreyp

Nicolas,

There are bunch of proactive things we should be doing as a country and locally here in florida. I've felt we should be building reverse osmosis plants all up and down the coast to make fresh water from seawater. With the large popupation growth you cannot depend on ground water or lake water to meet all your freshwater needs. There are some places in south florida that are using grey water (processed wastewater) piped to the houses for use as water you use to water your lawn. I think there is way too much water that goes down the storm drains and out to sea instead of reclaiming it.

I have a flex kit for my vehicle from E85 flex fuel conversion kits from Jonny Energy and burn almost exclusively ethanol. It's a carbon neutral fuel and there are more and more stations here in florida. My main concern really is not sending $$ over to countries that hate us, there are pros and cons to ethanol but for me the pros outweigh the cons. There are a ton of alternative energy options & this country is very short sighted in not investing heavily in them. The pickens plan for large scale wind farms, nuclear (france's energy production is about 80% from nuclear), solar farms First Solar to Build 250MW & 300MW Solar Farms in California, Enough to Power 170,000 Homes : TreeHugger, geothermal (high-velocity flame jet may make drilling cost effective). Investments in technologies that produce Bio diesel, Algae oil, ethanol, butanol, natural gas, hydrogen fuel, etc are all steps in the right direction imho. With hyrdogen you can produce it on demand from electriciy (electrolysis) and new and existing vehicles can be retrofitted to burn it. There are new "tuffshell" 10,000 psi tanks that can give you the same range as with gasoline!

Renewable Energy Focus - Horizon to unveil ‘personal hydrogen station’ at CES 2010 in Las Vegas this week
Greentech Media: Can Aluminum Make Hydrogen Real?