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Old 09-12-2020, 10:09 AM   #1 (permalink)
 
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Default Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

Hurricane Landfall on LA 8AM Tuesday...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images...cab66e2bf9.png
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Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-12-2020, 12:56 PM   #2 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

TS Sally now...

Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
__________________
Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936


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Old 09-12-2020, 02:30 PM   #3 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images...f32dc01b0d.png

And another disturbance 20% on GOM...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images...925244d8f9.png
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Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-12-2020, 02:35 PM   #4 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images...ac41417232.gif
__________________
Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-12-2020, 02:47 PM   #5 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

@RyanMaue

1 h
Very concerned about Tropical Storm Sally blowing up into a powerful hurricane before slowing and tracking toward mouth of Mississippi on Monday.

Worst case scenario is a major hurricane and/or 20-30 inches of rain from slow Sally
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Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

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Old 09-12-2020, 03:32 PM   #6 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

Latest rapid intensification indices give it a 10-15% chance of becoming a hurricane in next 24 hours.
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Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-12-2020, 04:03 PM   #7 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

NHC has track East of New Orleans.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...e_and_wind.png

From the NHC Advisory:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida
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Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936


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Old 09-12-2020, 04:10 PM   #8 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

@SteveWAFB
Wrapped a conference call with our colleagues at @NWSNewOrleans a few minutes ago. Early messaging is 8-12 feet of surge possible from mouth of the MS River east along the MS coast with current track of #Sally. Important to note that is very track/intensity dependent.

Total rainfall for Sally according to the 12Z HWRF. is 34 inches over or near Mobile.
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Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936


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Old 09-13-2020, 02:54 AM   #9 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
223 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

The National Weather Service in Miami has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 630 AM EDT.

* At 223 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
3 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Miami, Hialeah, Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, South
Miami, Virginia Key, Kendall, Miami Gardens, North Miami, Doral,
Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Pinecrest, Opa-Locka, Miami Springs,
Sweetwater, Miami Shores, West Miami and El Portal.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the
warned area.
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Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-13-2020, 04:08 AM   #10 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 13
Location: 27.0N 84.0W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Hurricane warning now issued from Grand Isle, LA to Ocean Springs, MS

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake

Borgne...7-11 ft

Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft

Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft

Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft

MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft

AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay,

Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
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Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-13-2020, 06:57 AM   #11 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

@WeatherProf
The ‘right angle’ of the coast, and shallow waters, between SE LA & MS will funnel and raise levels. 10ft+ of surge now possible. Slow movement means 2 feet of rain is likely to fall in a narrow zone, and I suspect higher amounts. All this water is very very dangerous.
11:40 AM Sep 13, 2020
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Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-13-2020, 07:10 AM   #12 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
__________________
Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-13-2020, 02:39 PM   #13 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

The flooding from rain is going to be bad. The 12Z HWRF predicts ***54 inches*** of rain in Mobile, AL despite having a much weaker storm.
__________________
Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-14-2020, 06:35 AM   #14 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images...a84adabb8e.png

HWRF landfall SE Mississippi at 965 mbs
__________________
Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-14-2020, 06:45 AM   #15 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

@JackSillin
The most notable change with overnight forecasts from NHC and model guidance is a shift east in the storm's expected track.

The threat to #NewOrleans is no longer quite as high as it was yesterday.

The threat to places like #Biloxi #MSwx and #Mobile #ALwx has increased.
__________________
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Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-14-2020, 10:38 AM   #16 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

Mobile, Al is under Hurricane Warning
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Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-14-2020, 11:16 AM   #17 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

Pensacola Beach apartments flooded on sound side (intracoastal side) due to surge. Ground floors, about 3 feet of water.
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Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-14-2020, 11:40 AM   #18 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

increased again to 90mph.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141630
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Special Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
__________________
Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-14-2020, 11:43 AM   #19 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

@Dave_Nussbaum

#UPDATE: #Sally will now be a Cat. 2 with 105 mph winds later today and Tuesday. There is a chance it could be even stronger (Cat. 3 starts at 111 mph). Landfall will be around midnight Wednesday along the MS Coast. #BeOn4 @WWLTV
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Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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Old 09-14-2020, 11:57 AM   #20 (permalink)
 
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Default Re: Hurricane Landfall on LA Tuesday

Many people starting bad conditions...

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Musa Rajapuri, D. Brazilian, D. Orinoco, Blue Java, Pisang Ceylon, Robusta, S. D. Cavendish, Da Jiao (Himalayan Fruit), D. Goldfinger, x Fruit, Himalayan Mountain, Williams

Mango Glenn, Red Ivory

Avocado Bacon, Stewart, Sir Prize, Ettinger, Pinkerton, Duke

Paw Paw Sunflower, Prima 1216, Potomac, KSU Atwood, Mango, Jerry's Big Girl, Al Horns, KSU Chapell

https://growingfruit.org/t/my-small-...-orchard/19936

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