View Full Version : Interesting article on cold weather & "global warming"
harveyc
12-20-2007, 01:29 AM
I think it's obvious scientists don't always apply science objectively and find it difficult to know what to make of some reports. I think this commentary is interesting, especially towards the end.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071219/COMMENTARY/10575140
momoese
12-20-2007, 02:22 AM
Well one thing we know is that weather patterns will change and become unusual and way more unpredictable without the ice caps in place. This means colder in some areas and warmer in others with unpredictable weather patterns. There is a lot of hype and spin on both sides but we do know the ocean is rising. That is measurable and can't be denied.
harveyc
12-20-2007, 02:28 AM
Mitchel, I've read about ocean rising in some areas but have not read anything that gave me a concrete figure for the global level. I had originally thought ocean levels would fluctuate evenly but I read earlier this year that this is not the case. Also, if Antartica is getting colder (as I've read once before), how can the polar cap there be melting? I live slightly below (current) sea level so this is of great interest to me!!!
I'm open-minded on this but just let most of this stuff pass on through.....
momoese
12-20-2007, 02:57 AM
Here is one example, possibly the fist people to have to leave their land due to "Climate Change" I don't much care for the term "Global Warming"
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0706/S00130.htm
Here is a bunch of info on Wikipedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise
If the ocean rises to the levels some predict my house will be under water as well. Hopefuly I'll be long gone by then!
harveyc
12-20-2007, 03:11 AM
Mitchel, no offense, but I don't find much convincing evidence in most of these things. They contain a lot of hype. Even if ocean levels are rising, these stories are written on a human interest level and usually lack factual evidence.
Here are some links that contradict some of the claims. I don't know that they are all accurate either, but the first one does include some apparently factual data.
http://www.john-daly.com/press/press-02a.htm#funafuti
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewCulture.asp?Page=%5C%5CCulture%5C%5Carchive%5C%5C200512%5C%5 CCUL20051207a.html
http://www.iceagenow.com/Falling_Sea_Levels.htm
http://www.iceagenow.com/Atlantic_Sea_Level_Falling.htm
http://www.iceagenow.com/Antarctic_Ice_sheet_Growing_Sea_Levels_Falling.htm
http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/06/sea-level-in-arctic-is-falling.html
http://globallychanging.blogspot.com/2005/12/prof-nils-axel-mrner-on-rising-sea.html
http://atlas-conferences.com/c/a/i/q/28.htm
This has been turned into such a political issue, thanks in large part to the media and self-promoting politicians, that it's hard to tell which stories are reliable.
momoese
12-20-2007, 11:00 AM
I guess people will believe what they want to believe. I personally believe it's best to err on the side of caution. There is plenty of money to be made in caring for our environment. If we can create less pollution and possibly help stop Climate change as a by process then what's stopping us?
On a side note, did you see the documentary Who Killed The Electric Car?
harveyc
12-20-2007, 11:10 AM
I agree, Mitchel, we should conserve for economic sake as well.
No, never saw that. I don't watch TV at all (to conserve time!!!), was it on there?
In my opinion, Al Gore's message would be more believable if he didn't live in a huge mansion and jet around so much. But he is a politician, after all.
Making money out of conservation is part of the problem, though, sort of a catch 22, that leads to people promoting things for their own self-interest.
inkcube
12-20-2007, 11:16 AM
here is a brief history of CO2 changes in the last 50 years, a rise in CO2 levels is a good indicator of global warming via greenhouse gases. air samples are collected daily at the Mauna Loa observatory.
-1960-2006, Mauna Loa 22% increase from 313 – 381 ppm
-1997-98, increased 2.87 ppm previous annual average 1.4 ppm
-2004-06, went from 377 - 381 ppm
-Could reach 450-550 ppm by 2050
-prior to industrial revolution CO2 level 150-200 ppm, now 380 ppm
there are already changes in growing seasons in the US;
-1950-1990 the average daily min temp. increase 2-3°C in much of Western US
-Since 1990, 10 warmest years on record in US (National Academy of Science)
-New England's growing season is 8 days longer on average than in 1950
-1965, most of Massachusetts in Zone 5 now zone 6
-lilacs are blooming on an average 8 days sooner in the Eastern US they flower in response accumulated temperature - an indicator of warming trends
harveyc
12-20-2007, 11:27 AM
Thanks, inkcube. Are those figures you carry around in your brain or do you have a link where I can read more?
momoese
12-20-2007, 11:37 AM
Making money out of conservation is part of the problem, though, sort of a catch 22, that leads to people promoting things for their own self-interest.
Very true, but I think the least of two evils. I have no problem with capitalism, especially when it's not creating pollution but adding jobs. Win win!
Or we could do things like this. It created great wealth and jobs, for a while.
http://www.american.edu/TED/NAURU.htm
http://www.everyculture.com/images/ctc_03_img0762.jpg
I highly recommend renting the movie even if you have to watch it at a friends house. It's a very powerful non partisan look at just what happened to the electric car program and the cars themselves in California.
inkcube
12-20-2007, 11:45 AM
some came from some guest lectures i gave last year and some from research that was done for a hort firm over several years. the CO2 levels at Mauna Loa should be fairly easy to find through Google.
harveyc
12-20-2007, 11:49 AM
Gosh, I'm starting to feel guilty I've got a 1,000w light going on my indoor bananas right now. Maybe my little jungle will make up for it in the spring/summer. I can hope!
harveyc
12-20-2007, 12:02 PM
I highly recommend renting the movie even if you have to watch it at a friends house. It's a very powerful non partisan look at just what happened to the electric car program and the cars themselves in California.
Hey, I'm not that isolated. I do have a TV and VCR and DVD player, I just don't watch TV programming and rarely watch the TV. I spend too much time looking at this monitor, I guess! I'll check, but I doubt my small town will have this movie.
Anyway, it did seem less hot for us last summer and has been colder than normal this fall so I just thought the article a friend shared with me was interesting.
That big gas-guzzling Suburban you saw me in last week only gets used for special trips like that (averaging 6,000 miles/year). It costs about $125 to fill that thing up!
harveyc
01-07-2008, 01:54 AM
Just a follow-up with another article along with the same views. While CO2 has gone up 4% since 1998, temperatures have not gone up worldwide. I can "feel" that with the weather we've had.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/01/06/br_r_r_where_did_global_warming_go/
mskitty38583
01-07-2008, 09:16 AM
i know that when i moved to tn. almost 8 yrs ago we had snow in the winter. the last 3 yrs. we have only had a dusting.1/2 inch or less. this year we also had a drought, we were 28 inches low on rain. so something freaky is going on with the weather. all i know is i plant my nanas outside and they tell me i cant water cause of a water ban..my happy little nana, will be outside before the crack of dawn and ill be watering my nana trees. they can kiss my happy banana, if i have to go out and buy 1500 gallons of water just for a week of nana watering. my roses looked horrible, my peonies look bad even my red hot pokers look a little worse for wear.:2731: :2731: :2731:.
inkcube
01-07-2008, 11:29 AM
While CO2 has gone up 4% since 1998, temperatures have not gone up worldwide.
thats because it is not being looked at world wide, some 3rd world countries don't give care, have no resources, or won't allow measurements to be taken. if temps are rising in the US and Australia (they have done more weather research than any one) then they are rising everywhere - the ice at both poles are shrinking. there has been some speculation that things are actually worse in some areas where industry is not monitored like it is in the US, EU, or Australia.
there are actually some studies coming out that show that hybrid cars (require more energy to manufacture), fluorescent bulbs (disposal issues due to mercury), and some other green options are actually worse than the gas-guzzlers and incandescents.
harveyc
01-07-2008, 12:08 PM
I'd like to read more so it would be appreciated if you would include links to some references. Thanks.
inkcube
01-07-2008, 01:30 PM
i don't have any links to online info, most of what i have said have come from various scientific journals.
bigdog
01-07-2008, 06:57 PM
According to NASA, Antarctic sea ice has been on the rise for many years. I also read another study recently that said that there is more ice in Antarctica right now than at any other time in recorded history.
http://www.nasa.gov/lb/vision/earth/environment/sea_ice.html
harveyc
01-07-2008, 07:52 PM
I've read in various scientific reports that Anartica may be thawing in a portion but overall it is freezing more and that the ocean level there is dropping. I don't have a link off hand, though.
harveyc
01-07-2008, 07:53 PM
Oops, I meant to post that before you bigdog, but I made had a spill and had to mop the kitchen floor before my wife gets home! lol
Lagniappe
01-07-2008, 09:10 PM
I guess people will believe what they want to believe. I personally believe it's best to err on the side of caution. There is plenty of money to be made in caring for our environment. If we can create less pollution and possibly help stop Climate change as a by process then what's stopping us?
On a side note, did you see the documentary Who Killed The Electric Car?
MItch, I saw that program and was amazed that green technologies could be repressed by politics . There are legitimate concerns on both sides though . For instance , when the service guy was interviewed , it made one wonder about the fate of the spark plug manufacturer ,autoservice industry ,......
Theoretically we should see a lateral economic transfer in all sectors(manufacturing , retail ,service.....) with the introduction of these type of products.
Most people are not aware of the advances at our doorsteps . Magnetic(rare earth) motors , solar shingles , solar paint ,....all are real and ,once production is stepped up, affordable .
And if anyone believes that all electric cars are wimpy ,across town type vehicles then take a look at this beauty : http://www.teslamotors.com/
Right now they are made one at a time and cost around 100k . Imagine how affordable they would be as a production car.
Richard
01-07-2008, 09:12 PM
Global warming refers to the average temperature of the earth as a whole. Imagine from some abstract point in space measuring the temperature of the earth as one number. Further, the warming under consideration is about 1 degree (C) per 100 years.
If you believe that the global temperature of the earth is not changing or somehow changing differently, fine. Tell us how you are measuring the global temperature of the earth and how you interpret the historical data. There is plenty of room for discussion on the topic and some very qualified individuals on all sides of the argument.
Now where did I leave that 'naner thermometer?
:2708:
mskitty38583
01-07-2008, 10:49 PM
open up and say ahhhhhh...:jumpingonbednaner:
inkcube
01-07-2008, 10:53 PM
Tell us how you are measuring the global temperature of the earth and how you interpret the historical data.
there are sites setup all throughout the US, EU, and Australia that measure hourly temps since the 1960's (Australia is leading the research on global warming effects on meteorology). Mauna Loa, along with temps, has been measuring daily CO2, CO, methane, & nitrous oxide readings since the 50's, much of this research is funded by the National Academy. the fact that the USDA hardiness zones have change is an indication that warming is occuring, Massachesetts used to be a zone 5 in the 60's and is now a zone 6 and the growing season in New England is 8 days longer.
Richard
01-07-2008, 11:14 PM
Harvey, you are not understanding the meaning of "global temperature of the earth" as one number.
So far I have not stated here whether I agree or disagree with the projected rates of global temperature change, so please don't interpret this as an argument for or against any position. I'm just trying to clarify what the discussion is about.
harveyc
01-07-2008, 11:34 PM
Harvey, you are not understanding the meaning of "global temperature of the earth" as one number.
No, I am understand it fine. I'm pointing out an area where it appears to be getting colder. News reports typically only give one part of the situation or, just a part of the "one" number.
As mentioned in the article, UK scientists concluded that the average global temperature has gone down since 1998. I could not find the actual report to back that up, though. Still, I think it's odd that the media doesn't report on this more. If it's a false statement, where are the numbers to back it up?
Lagniappe
01-12-2008, 02:52 AM
Here's another weather anomaly frome earlier this week :
"Iraq has had it's first snow in living history".....BBC World News
modenacart
01-20-2008, 11:54 AM
Global warming refers to the average temperature of the earth as a whole. Imagine from some abstract point in space measuring the temperature of the earth as one number. Further, the warming under consideration is about 1 degree (C) per 100 years.
:2708:
Everytime I see that the temperature has gone up one degree it makes me laugh. There is no way we have data that has a resolution of one degree.
Richard
01-21-2008, 02:20 PM
Everytime I see that the temperature has gone up one degree it makes me laugh. There is no way we have data that has a resolution of one degree.
The researchers in this field are modeling, not measuring. Last I read, there are 5 models that are under serious discussion. Further, they are not concerned with a one-time temperature change but average temperatures at 100 year intervals over several millennia, and in some cases epochs. Whether or not some or any of these models are valid is also a matter of serious discussion in the research literature.
modenacart
01-21-2008, 04:20 PM
They don't have the capibilty to model to one degree. I ran a thermo lab in college and we didn't have the capibility with very simple experiments.
Richard
01-21-2008, 04:43 PM
They don't have the capibilty to model to one degree. I ran a thermo lab in college and we didn't have the capibility with very simple experiments.
I don't know whether they do or not. I do know you are pursuing a different question. These are mathematical models implemented in software. Suppose you have modeled that in the millinium 2000 B.C.E. the temperature was 65 F +/- 5 F error. In the same model, suppose you have modeled the temperature as 75 F +/- 5 F error for the millinium that just ended. Then, on average you have 0.5 F rise per century in the intervening years.
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